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News
By Michael Broadway and John Broadway of Rural Insights
MARQUETTE – “Northern Michigan, after years of struggle, is gaining residents again,” proclaimed a recent headline on a popular Michigan news website. The subject of the article was the U.S. Census Bureau’s recent release of its 2023 population estimates for Michigan counties.
And like a lot of attention-grabbing headlines, the devil lies in the details. Instead, the authors propose a more nuanced headline: It’s a mixed bag.
The population dynamics of the U.P. are well known. The birth rate has been falling for decades, in line with the overall drop in U.S. fertility levels. At the same time, an aging population is driving up the number of deaths. More deaths than births will produce a decline in population, unless that deficit can be offset by people moving to the area.
This article digs deeper into the latest population estimates to illustrate a more complex pattern.
The Upper Peninsula is isolated with an economy dependent upon natural resources. Mining closures have been part of the landscape for over 100 years, while technological changes in the forest products industries require fewer workers. Air force base and prison closings have also been a part of the region’s economic landscape since the 1970s.
The net effect of these and other related processes is that when a mine or other facility closes, people move away. In the past, the numbers of people leaving have been partially offset by a high birth rate; that is no longer the case. In 2022, the number of births in the U.P. totaled 2,181 – down 616 from 2010, a drop of 22%. Total deaths in 2022 were 3,514; 262 more than in 2010.
Given the region’s higher number of deaths than births, it might be expected that the region’s population would decline. But that is not the case for the most recent population estimates.
Ten counties had a higher population in 2023 than in 2020, although it should be noted that these increases amount to less than 30 persons for several counties. Nevertheless, the region’s population is up by 465 persons, an increase of .15% compared with the state’s drop of -.4%.
Keweenaw County had the highest percentage population gain in the U.P. (and state); although in terms of raw numbers its increase of 125 persons is relatively modest. Iron County ranked fourth of the 10 counties in terms of net gain, with 107 persons – equating to a .9% increase in population. These and other gains suggest that the Covid induced migration in 2020 that drew people to the U.P. to work remotely has been sustained.
It also provides some support for the idea that the region might be attracting migrants escaping areas that are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the South and West. This phenomenon was identified in a previously published article on Rural Insights “Recent U.P. migration trends and their economic consequences.”
Between 2020 and 2021, for example, more households moved to the U.P. from Southern and Western states than moved in the opposite direction, marking a reversal in long term migration patterns. But some counties continue to lose population; a pattern that dates back to 2000 for Alger, Chippewa, Delta, Gogebic and Menominee counties.
Alongside the headline that prompted this article is a picture of the Eagle Harbor Lighthouse in Keweenaw County with the text noting the county has added nearly 200 people since 2020, “part of a trend of small population gains in rural areas”. However, some U.P. counties continue to shed population as part of a long-term trend, while a detailed analysis of the U.P. at the zip code level illustrates wide disparities in economic well-being even among counties experiencing population gains.
The Economic Innovation Group has developed a Distressed Communities Index that uses census data to sort regions into one of five well-being categories: prosperous, comfortable, mid-tier, at risk and distressed. (A detailed explanation of the methodology used in compiling the index is available at eig.org.)
Distressed communities are characterized by economic disinvestment, high levels of unemployment and poverty, along with low levels of educational attainment and labor force participation. There are 11 distressed U.P. zip codes. Iron County, along with Marquette and Houghton counties, are all experiencing population growth – yet each contains distressed communities.
Fortunes for the South Range mine in Houghton started to decline in the 1920s, while Republic’s mine closed in 1982 and Palmer’s closed in 2016. Not surprisingly these closures have a significant impact. In Palmer, between 2017 and 2022, the number of jobs dropped by over 80 percent, while businesses declined 22 percent, epitomizing the characteristics of an economically distressed community.
Pelkie (Baraga), Hessel (Mackinac) and Kincheloe (Chippewa) have the highest distress scores in the U.P., and rank in the top 10 percent of most distressed zip codes within the state. Over 50 percent of prime age adults (25-54) in all three communities are not working, which is higher than many zip codes in Detroit. Yet Baraga and Mackinac are growing in population.
In short, even within counties gaining population, there are struggling communities.
Returning to the original headline that prompted this article. ‘After years of struggle’ some U.P. counties are gaining population as a result of migration. But as to whether this process will continue is an open question.
The benefits that newcomers bring are clear: an increased demand for goods and services as well as a boost to local taxes. But new arrivals have unintended consequences such as increasing the strain on rural health care services, and rising housing prices to make home-ownership out of reach for long-term residents.
Finally, the fact that some counties are gaining population should not mask the continued population decline in other counties, or the economic and social challenges that exist within distressed communities found throughout the entire region. In short, demographic change is truly a mixed bag.
Editor’s Note: Rural Insights is a nonprofit online publishing outlet focused specifically on issues affecting the U.P. and its residents. To learn more or to sign up for its newsletter, visit ruralinsights.org.